As we move into a multipolar world devoid of commonly agreed direction, it’s necessary to examine how the big players are preparing for the future. With the US and China entering a new cycle of economic tariff-based warfare (at least for the foreseeable future), we find a shaken and unstirring EU sitting uncomfortably in the middle, a potential theatre of operations for the coming conflict.
What Europe does next is vital not just for its survival, but for its existence as a socio-economic entity. Europe already finds itself under US tariffs, and Europe itself is levying tariffs on Chinese goods, while China reciprocates in a measured manner.
To understand this powerplay one needs to examine the desired destination of each region. What are they looking for? What do they want to achieve? Who do they see as a reliable and accessible partner for future trade?
Under the Trump Presidency, the US is returning once again to a more insular ‘America First’ agenda. Not surprising, really, given the propensity of the nation to instigate forever wars based on national interest that seemed more flights of fancy than strategic goals. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya… not so much success, but a lot of money spent on military equipment with little treasure to show for their efforts. Trump says he wants to avoid hot wars. He prefers the economic kind. After all he’s a businessman. It’s what he knows. The American public is tired of seeing their children die in foreign deserts.
As the US draws ever inward, the EU and China find themselves in a new world that will require some adept navigational skills. China, whose BRICS buddies are longing for a future that sees the back of US hegemony, sit on a huge market. The BRICS nations account for over 54% of the world’s total population (excluding prospective member Nigeria) and a sit on a significant collection of resources. Here are some examples:
- Brazil is a powerhouse in agriculture, exporting commodities like soybeans, coffee, and iron ore.
- Russia is rich in energy resources, particularly oil and natural gas.
- India offers a massive service sector, IT, and pharmaceutical industry.
- China leads in manufacturing, electronics, and is a dominant player in rare earth elements.
- South Africa provides minerals and metals.
- New Members: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran add significant oil production capacity, while Egypt and Ethiopia contribute with their strategic locations and emerging markets.
So, the big question is do the BRICS need the US or the EU to flourish? The answer is a most definite maybe. There is no way the BRICS bloc can grow without better intra-BRICS trading, a more innovative and technology-driven industrial approach to solving their problems, and of course, stable governance. What they do have in their favour, as outlined above, is a wealth of resources and potential.
And while China and the BRICS nations come together to build a functional and stable marketplace, the EU is sitting on the sidelines wondering if they have gone too far with their regulations and directives, resulting in stifled innovation, stunted business growth, a rising sense of industrial failure due to an abysmal lack of competitiveness.
The US is reinventing itself. The BRICS buddies are inventing themselves and creating their own reality. The EU remains stuck in its Brussels-based haze of regulation and control, lacking the agility to react and adapt to geopolitical and market dynamics.
Unless the EU’s newly formed ‘Competitiveness Compass’ can find its true north, Europe will become a failed experiment. It is already failing and drifting into the arms of the right. Whether this bodes well for our European ideal remains to be seen.
